Obama and Romney are starting their third and final debate as I type. Mr. Obama came back from a dismal first outing to hold his own in the second go-round. My expectation tonight is that we'll see essentially a replay of last Tuesday. Obama will be aggressive and relaxed, while Romney will be steady and somewhat stiff. In the final tally, the "winner" will lead by a small margin.
Unfortunately for the President, the first debate represented his biggest opportunity to gain and hold voters, for two reasons:
First, more viewers tuned in with, if not open minds, at least impressionable minds. It was Romney's first toe-to-toe with Obama, so nobody knew how he'd stack up. Most people had paid little or no attention to the Republican debates (except for the gaff reels) and hadn't seen Romney in the debate setting. Expectations, in spite of both camp's attempts to talk down their candidate's chances, were that Obama's eloquence would allow him to sink Romney. Mr. Romney, therefore, inherently had the largest up-side coming into the first meeting.
Second, a large percentage of the population was looking for a reason to vote for Romney. They were ready to bail on Obama for reasons having to do with the economy, government policy (especially the debt), and race. The only thing that stood in the way was their discomfort with The Other Guy.
Romney's credible performance, and Obama's incredible incompetence, was a double hit. Not only did it provide a positive impression for Romney, Obama's meek and weak showing allowed people to give up on him. The results are perfectly clear in the polling since October 4th.
The second debate was a clear success for Mr. Obama, however it was not a clear defeat for Mr. Romney. Unlike the first debate when Obama supporters (poor Chris Matthews) could clearly see that the President did poorly, after the second debate partisan viewers mostly felt it was a win for their guy. Obama "won" by a modest margin in public opinion, but it was far from a blowout.
Obama's polling was in a free fall until the V.P. debate. After Mr. Biden's performance the poll numbers bounced back in Obama's direction. (I'm not saying this was a direct result of the Biden/Ryan debate, but it did coincide.) Since then the numbers have been mostly flat. They seem to be trending upward slightly after Oct. 16th, but it's been essentially flat.
So what happens from here?
The president is unlikely to see much bounce from tonight's debate, even if he scores a clear victory, simply because fewer people are tuned in and there are fewer undecided or influenceable voters left.
There are three possibilities that I see: Polls could trend modestly in Obama's favor, they can hold flat, or move slightly towards Romney. I don't foresee a significant move in either direction.
Currently, according to FiveThirtyEight blog, Mr Obama has a lead in the swing states sufficient to give him the win 70% of the time. That sounds pretty good, but given the uncertainty of polls the margin is uncomfortably slim.
At this point in time the race is quite close to a toss-up. Both sides will be in full court press mode from here on out. The focus will increasingly be on turnout as independents and undecideds become non-existant.
Post Script:
The debate is at the one hour mark as I type. Romney has been holding his own for the most part, but the President has scored some uppercuts to the jaw. "We have fewer horses too" was a great line. That's going to lead the news cycle tomorrow. Obama's response to the "apology tour" old saw put Romney against the ropes. Obama seems to be finishing strong.
As a parting shot, my crystal ball says that it's still Obama's to lose, and after his performance tonight I don't foresee him losing it. I just wish I was more confident about that, because, after all, the American people – who brought us 8 years of W Bush – are the ones who make the choice.
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